The Future You See is the One You Create: The Leadership Power of Adaptive Thinking
- Craig Law-Smith
- Feb 20
- 3 min read
Your next meeting is with a potentially angry client. Your performance review is going to be a difficult conversation. The merger negotiation will be extremely challenging.
How do you know?
You don’t. But your brain thinks it does.
At every moment, your brain is predicting what will happen next based on past experiences. These predictions shape not only how you see a situation but also how you respond to it—often before the event even unfolds.
As psychiatrist Regina Pally explains in The Predicting Brain:
“Even before events happen, the brain has already made a prediction about what is most likely to happen and sets in motion the perceptions, behaviors, emotions, physiological responses, and interpersonal ways of relating that best fit with what is predicted. In effect, we live the future we just predicted.”
Or, as writer Anaïs Nin put it:
“We don’t see things as they are, we see them as we are.”
In other words, our assumptions shape our reality before we even step into it.
The Power and Peril of Prediction
Our predictive brain is a double-edged sword.
✅ The upside: Prediction helps us navigate the world efficiently. By anticipating what will happen next, our brain conserves energy, processes information faster, and guides decision-making.
❌ The downside: We don’t always predict correctly. When our expectations override reality, we see what we expect to see—not what is actually happening.
🔸 The client comes in curious—but because you expected anger, you react defensively.
🔸 The performance review is positive—but your assumption that it will be difficult makes you tense and judgmental.
🔸 The merger partner is amiable—but because you anticipated conflict, you interpret their warmth as manipulation.
This is called predictive error, and it can be the difference between a leader who sees reality clearly and one who reacts to illusions.
The best leaders don’t eliminate predictions—they refine them. They develop an adaptive prediction system that allows them to adjust in real-time.
How to Build an Adaptive Prediction System
Great leaders don’t just react to the future—they shape it by training their brains to predict with greater accuracy and flexibility. Here’s how:
1. Create Psychological Safety (Internally & Externally)
Fear, stress, and anxiety hijack predictions, making you rigid and reactive. To counter this:
✅ Externally: Foster an environment where curiosity is encouraged, mistakes are learning opportunities, and diverse viewpoints are valued.
✅ Internally: Pause before reacting. Take a deep breath. This moment of stillness allows you to respond instead of reacting, keeping your brain open to alternative interpretations.
2. Cultivate a Beginner’s Mindset
Assumptions lock you into a single prediction. The antidote? Curiosity.
Ask yourself:
🔹 What’s another possible way to see this?
🔹 How might others interpret this situation?
🔹 What if my assumption is wrong?
The more perspectives you consider, the more flexible and adaptive your brain becomes.
3. Strengthen Emotional Regulation
Strong emotions narrow perception, reinforcing predictive error. The more emotionally reactive you are, the more your brain defaults to rigid thinking.
✅ Breathwork: Slows the nervous system, keeping your mind open to possibilities.
✅ Meditation: Trains your brain to observe thoughts without immediately believing them.
✅ Journaling: Helps you separate assumptions from reality and refine your thinking.
When you regulate emotions, you free your brain to predict based on present reality—not outdated fears or biases.
Final Thought: Reality is a Self-Fulfilling Prediction
What you are predicting right now is shaping the future you will experience.
The question is: Is your prediction accurate?
A great leader doesn’t just trust their assumptions—they challenge them, refine them, and stay open to a reality greater than their expectations.
The future is not written—your brain is writing it. Choose wisely.
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